AFL BLUES V TIGERS $100,000+ CHEAT SHEET
One hundred grand! What a massive way to start the 2019 AFL DFS season!
Footy is back and there are $100,000 reasons to get amongst it tonight at the MCG as Carlton and Richmond renew the rivalry in front of 75,000+ screaming, footy-starved fans.
With the Blues naming half a dozen debutantes and some uncertainty around the roles and output’s of several Tigers, this single-gamer looks likely to deliver a really even spread of ownerships which should give coaches real bang for their buck.
I want to touch on a few points before we get into it; firstly the early rounds of an AFL DFS season are always chocked full of value options which I prioritise over any ‘game theory’ of ‘game scripts’ and second, never (ever) be afraid to be unique in your lineup construction.
With Carlton (3rd last) and Richmond (2nd last) for total fantasy points scored in 2018, this game is not exactly a a pace-up matchup so assuming a low(ish) cashline of say 775-800pts looks a smart way to approach it. It could also help alleviate that selection stress of feeling like you need three or four guys to go absolutely bananas.
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for the AFL Thursday $100,000 contest…
FORWARD
Tom J Lynch (RICH – $11,670)
With Balta named for the Tigers on the bench and Lynch obviously first-up from an off-season PCL reco, coaches will be jumping off Lynch faster than players on a Suns list. I keep coming back to ‘why would they even risk him at all if he was not fit’? The answer is they just wouldn’t, so I am assuming he is good to go and his recent form against Carlton is amazing. It’s a big risk but there are not many FWD options with 120+ upside. Lynch is one of them.
Dan Butler (RICH – $8,850)
I’m really hopeful that Buttler can be single digit owned tonight but even if he is a little higher, you will get him at sub 20%. Averages 70 in 3 games against Carlton and as we saw in JLT2 when the Tigers are dominant forward of centre Butler can get his tackle game going which gives him a really safe DFS floor at this price tag. A 2.2 from 12 touches with 7 tackles for a 10x game is well within the realms of possibility here.
MIDFIELD
Zac Fisher (CARL – $10,010)
His average climbed 24pts from 2017 to last year where he averaged 69pts. You are picking him here thinking that trend will continue. The first of four rookie midfielders that we’re taking into this contest in a highly-controversial and unique build where we are looking for 75-90’s from Fisher and his low-priced pals. Role doesn’t change even in a blowout and I can see him improving his tackle numbers this season too.
Sam Petrevski-Seton (CARL – $9,480)
More midfield time looks almost a forgone conclusion for the bigger, fitter SPS in 2019. Very keen to see what he can do with more onball minutes, away from the dreaded half forward role. I’m taking him here at good ownership and to get a jump on his price tag which should climb a few thousand pretty quick.
Jack Graham (RIC – $9,570)
This is where you slot in Sam Walsh if you are playing 2 teams and like the general feel of this lineup, but we’re fading him here in favour of Graham who I am hoping starts season 2019 with a double figure tackle count, double figure disposals and a goal or two. I don’t need him to hit value, I just need him to beat Sam Walsh, but he can reach 10x here especially with no Grigg or Caddy in the lineup.
Will Setterfield (CARL – $9,000)
Former #5 who tackles and finds the footy. Has just been let down by his body but he was a NEAFL beast (i know, who isn’t) in 2017. His role is a little in the air as he could easily find himself on a HFF for Carlton tonight but i suspect he is slightly ahead of Dow in that midfield rotation and should spend some time at centre bounces. Like Graham, I only need Setterfield to score well relative to Walsh who is likely to be owned by 75-80% of the field. Will should come in at sub 20%.
DEFENDERS
Kade Simpson (CARL – $14,680)
Has been all but priced out of this contest at near enough to 15k. He can’t pay off the price but he absolutely can beat the next highest-scoring defender by 20-30pts and with the ball likely to live in the Carlton backline Simpson will get plenty of cheap lateral mark/kicks to go with his interception stats. Kick in bump as well. If you can find the cash, it’s a worthwhile punt, no one who has 120+ upside will be single digit owned bar Simpson tonight.
Jayden Short (RIC – $12,390)
I am subscribing heavily to the kick-in bonus theory so Short goes in for mine. His drive off half back and his ability to sneak around 60 out from goals for hands and a long-range shot make him the perfect GPP play. Expect he gets 10-15 extra points from kick-ins tonight.
RUCK
Toby Nankervis (RIC – $13,980)
As debate rages on twitter as to Phillips’ value relative to Nankervis, we have paid down in the midfield to be able to afford the higher ceiling players elswhere so Nank goes straight in. Nank tackles. He can notch 10 tackles tonight if in the mood. He also averaged 16 disposals in 2019 compared to Phillips 6. If Phillips bombs we’re laughing.
THE LINE-UP
FWD: Tom J Lynch ($11,670)
FWD: Dan Butler ($8,850)
MID: Zac Fisher ($10,010)
MID: Sam Petrevski-Seton ($9,480)
MID: Jack Graham ($9,570)
MID: Will Setterfield ( $9,000)
DEF: Kade Simpson ($14,680)
DEF: Jayden Short ($12,390)
RK: Toby Nankervis ($13,980)
AFL SCORING SYSTEM
Kick = 3 points
Mark = 3 points
Handball = 2 points
Goal = 6 points
Behind = 1 point
Tackle = 4 points
Free Kick For = 1 point
Free Kick Against = -3 points
Hitout = 1 point
AFL, Latest