AFL SATURDAY $50,000 CHEAT SHEET
A ripper four-game Saturday $50k with plenty of under-priced guns and tempting rookie options.
Full disclosure first off, we are fading big Maxy Gawn which I am not terribly happy about but we’re committing to taking the value when it’s offered this first weekend. Next admission is we have taken zero (that’s right none, nada, zip, zippy, zilch) rookie’s or min-priced guys into this contest.
The first Saturday of the new DFS season is about nailing which players have improved on their already-favourable fantasy role from last season, and/or which players will benefit most from a change of scenery at a new club.
Hopefully we’ve done that here and we can keep the cash train chugging along!
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for CONTEST
FORWARD
Sam Weideman (MEL – $8,390)
Averaged just 52pts last season but that was largely due to his role as part back-up ruckman, part third-string forward. This season there is no Jesse Hogan so Weids gets his chance to play bulk forward minutes in front of one of the hardest-working, best young midfields in the comp. Jonas and Clurey aren’t pushovers down back for Port but Weidemen will get his 2-4 shots on goal along with his dozen disposals which should see him hit a nice 7x-8x value game. Good thing about him is he can get hot, triple figure upside is absolutely there.
James Worpel (HAW – $10,810)
I love this guy so he probably would have made the team regardless, but with Tom Mitchell (and his 45 disposals, 10 tackles and 25 marks) out of that Hawthorn midfield, Worpel looks set for big minutes onball. he can have a 40pt quarter no problems, but i’m yet to see him really push for four quarters so i’m not sure if the 110pt upside is there for a 10x game. Has a very safe 75-80pt floor though. Opportunity and price marry up for a solid selection here.
MIDFIELD
Angus Brayshaw (MEL – $15,850)
This is our only real out and out points grab. I don’t see Brad Ebert going to Brayshaw (likely Oliver?) which means the hard-running Demon will be able to stat up as much as he likes. His best game can get into the realm of 10x value, but really if we get a 130+ from him here we are very happy. #kickittoangus
Liam Shiels (HAW – $14,140)
For the same reasons as Worpel re Tom Mitchell not being there in that Hawks midfield. Shiels appeals doubly though because he is the leader in there. He simply MUST try for four quarters. Think he will surprise some this year with his ceiling, has been in the shadows of midfield giants his whole career but now is his time to shine. Can return 110-120pts here with little effort.
Dom Sheed (WCE – $11,930)
With no Andrew Gaff in the Eagles midfield, Sheed will get all the onball time he can manage which, with his increasing tank, is considerable. Could be leading the Brownlow after 2 rounds (heard it here first!). Love everything about his price, capable of a 11-12x value game at his best but probably one of the safest 9-10x players on this slate.
Hugh McCluggage (BRI – $12,680)
Our midfield POD play, McCluggage is in his third year now and is ready to bang. Averaged 20 disposals, 3 tackles and 4 marks last season. Expect that whole stat line to surge north in 2019. No Beams and with Zorko a taggers dream, McCluggage will be the one getting the hands from Neale and surging the ball forward. Can pay off the price tag at his best, very safe 80-85pt floor though. Single digit ownership here.
DEFENDERS
Brodie Smith (ADE – $8,700)
Eat the chalk and move on. Smith is returning from missing vast majority of the 2018 season and looks set to spend more time in the midfield on the back of a very solid JLT campaign (89 and 99pts from just 70% game time). Likely to be 70% owned here but he is just such a safe selection. Capable of 100pts so if you fade and he goes big it will make cashing next to impossible.
Ryan Burton (POR – $9,270)
Burton was tossed in the Hawthorn dumpsters in the trade period and found his way to Port where he enjoyed a decent JLT (64 and 65pts). That’s his floor in this new side where I expect he sees a lot more time at half forward. It’s a big risk selection but like Newman on Thursday night, certain players that were tossed aside often rise to give their former clubs the big finger and I can just see that Burton, at home in front of family and friends, will have a mind to send a message first-up. POD ownership appeals also.
RUCK
Nathan Vardy (WCE – $7,960)
He bruises like a peach and the second a seven foot patron enters the Eagles club for a counter meal Vardy’s job security will nose dive, but for Round 1, on this slate, his price tag and role are very hard to pass up. Averaged 56pts last season from 11 games, three of which were 29, 31 and 43pt efforts which dragged his average down. I have his floor at 65pts here and when you are able to get a 9x floor with 12-13x upsdie (like the 92pts he peeled off in the GF against Grundy for example) then you have to consider strongly. Sinclair has an amazing match up, Gawn is Gawn and Tim English has no friends to help him ruck whatsoever, so Vardy is unlikely to even be chalky. Gets us two premo midfielders and can have a big game himself. win-win.
THE LINE-UP
FWD: Sam Weideman ($8,390)
FWD: James Worpel ($10,810)
MID: Angus Brayshaw ($15,850)
MID: Liam Shiels ($14,140)
MID: Dom Sheed ($11,930)
MID: Hugh McCluggage ($12,680)
DEF: Brodie Smith ($8,700)
DEF: Ryan Burton ($9,270)
RK: Nathan Vardy ($7,960)
AFL SCORING SYSTEM
Kick = 3 points
Mark = 3 points
Handball = 2 points
Goal = 6 points
Behind = 1 point
Tackle = 4 points
Free Kick For = 1 point
Free Kick Against = -3 points
Hitout = 1 point
AFL