AFLW R5 – $2,000 SATURDAY CONTEST
The prize pools may have dropped a little with the onset of the JLT ‘series’ contests but there is still money to be made in AFLW this week and with less coaches likely to do their research and due diligence now that the mens footy has started, there is plenty of great value that will likely be under-owned in this contest.
Lauren Arnell ($10,900): I don’t usually like playing Arnell but two factors compel me here. The first is the general lions commitment last game to defence and pressure, the second is the high chance of precipitation in Brisbane Saturday afternoon. Arnell is averaging 6 tackles per game but I can see her with an 8+ tackle game which is a great 30+ floor for a relatively cheap forward. Just needs a few disposal to clear 50.
Sarah Rowe ($8,230): Collingwood will see this as their best (and only) chance to win a game this season which almost guarantees defensive intent. Rowe recorded 5 tackles last game and 8 tackles in R2 which displays an appetite for defence that we like in dfs. Her 50pt last start effort included 2 behind which makes it a 60+ game has she converted. Will be under-owned and is at a great price to give 50+ a look.
Madeline Keryk ($13,850): Has been ultra-consistent this season averaging 7 tackles and 13 disposals – excellent floor. Importantly Keryk will be playing in a high-pressure game that is very likely to be rain-effected which plays right into her hands wheelhouse. She doesn’t get many marks so wont lose on that front if the game is wet. Likely to be very popular but havd to eat the chalk here given her consistency and suitability.
Kristy Stratton ($8,410): In case you haven’t already noticed, we are building a really safe ‘tackle floor’ team here which makes Stratton the perfect addition. Averaging 10 disposals and 6 tackles for under 9k so really it doesn’t need to be over-thought. Take the 50pts and move on.
Richelle Cranston ($14,200): Absolutely loved her game against the Blues. Tough, tight, wet-weather footy is what Cranston is built for. Doesn’t make it much, rarely looks to handball. She just tackles and kicks which means she goes up in 3’s and 4’s. seemingly paying a premium price but when a player clears 80pts with 2 behinds, it is clear she has a fantasy ceiling that is pushing 100pts so the price tag is actually cheaper than it first looks.
Jacqui Yorston ($10,950): What an unreal debut! No surprise to see Yorston in plenty of winning lineups on Saturday after a 9-tackle effort. 36pts in tackles from a 5k player is absolute fantasy gold and Yorston delivered it first up last week. The salary cappers have found her though and the big question this week is can she justify an 11k price tag? I’d have said no if the game was going to be dry but given it’s in the wet, I think it’s safe to mark her down for 40pts in tackles alone. She gets a few kicks and 50+ is achievable at what will be single digit ownership.
Ash Brazill ($14,620): Probably first person picked in this contest. Capable of a fantasy hundred which is probably 40pts more than the next defender on this slate. Small chance she struggles first game back from that heavy knock to the ribs but I can’t see her having a bad game here.
Gabrielle Pound ($9,650): With no Lauren Brazzale I really like Gab Pound in this game. Coming off a 16 disposal, 5 mark effort against the cats, Pound is Carlton’s attacking half back who can rebound and intercept the ball – so whether the Pies get there share of center clearances or not, Pound is likely to still score well. Safe option and cheap enough at sub 10k. Won’t be too highly owned either due to Brazill being near on 100%.
Eliza Hynes ($9,110): With rain likely to impact ruck scores in Brisbane we have to turn to the Melbourne game and in that contest it’s just Hynes for me. Solid all-round game appeals and the price tag at just over 9k allows expectations to be low. A 40pts score wont kill this team, but Hynes is capable of a 50+ no worries.
Salary Remaining: $80
Games = 10
Spend = $150
Win = $129.85
Profit = -$20.15AFL