AFL $75,000+ CATS V MAGPIES
The forecast could put a spanner in the works for coaches at selection with plenty of rain forecast throughout the day in Melbourne.
The Collingwood captain trots out for Game 300 whilst the Cats are looking to shake off the ‘straight sets in finals’ monkey that has latched onto their backs in recent seasons – expect 120% intensity for four quarters tonight.
The weather has made this a tricky contest and will likely result in a lot of coaches holding off final selections until very close to bounce to get an assessment of the surface there at the MCG.
It normally drains amazingly well but any precipitation, and i do mean any, will compound the already high intensity to the point where it will really limit ball movement.
At this early stage, we are taking a team full of guys who don’t mind getting down and dirty, can find their own footy and/or get cheap, short lateral kicks.
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for tonight’s Geelong v Collingwood contest.
FORWARD
Josh Thomas ($8,360): We are paying right down in our forward line tonight and taking two guys who will hopefully combine for 140-150pts for us. Thomas’ floor is pretty solid at that 55-60pt mark ovr the last two months of footy and is not afraid to lay a tackle which we like if the rain does impact.
Tom Atkins ($7,480): 15 disposals and 11 tackles last start against the Lions. That was a dry track! Despite the injured symbol next to his name, Atkins will be extremely chalky tonight but I think it’s good chalk and there is no way a hand injury will stop him playing his first final.
MIDFIELD
Gary Ablett ($12,660): Gaz-pod tonight I expect comes in under 15% owned. People will want to take Dangerfield, Grundy and will likely want to pay up for safety in defence which means maybe 1 star and a few cheaper guys in the midfield will be a popular build. Ablett is priced just above these cheaper options, he is tackling more and will not mind the wet at all.
Taylor Adams ($14,060): Taking Adams for his tackling. When he clears 9-10 tackles he goes 115-120+ every time and I can see that happening here. Always a risk with injury and should be pretty popular M1 or M2 choice tonight, but he is an all-conditions footy player and a pretty safe selection.
Joel Selwood ($10.590): Han’t cleared 80pts since July but don’t worry, Selwood is capable of a massive game any given Friday and this will mean more to him than any game has in a long time i suspect. Hopefully people see his box scores and avoid but he is a free square for mine. Lock him in for 10x value.
Rupert Wills ($9.320): Noble will be the min-priced midfield chalk and if it’s dry then fair enough, but any rain or even damp conditons brings Wills into play. Averaging 7 tackles in his last month of footy, along with 18 disposals. That is 70 odd as an average, before he marks the footy. Throw in a few more tackles if its wet and a value game looms.
DEFENDERS
Jack Crisp ($13,420): Paying up in defence is key tonight. We’re fading Grundy and hoping that our two prime defenders can account for the difference in points. Crisp is more your dry weather player but he will be the guy the look to short if there is a short kick, and he does get up into the contest a lot more these days. Think he is a safe 90+ tonight on a night full of defensive traps.
Mitch Duncan ($12,780): Duncan will be super chalky given he has been 15k or thereabouts all season. Like Crisp, he is more a dry weather player but he also has a 90+ floor and is just too safe at this price to fade. Will run the game out.
RUCK
Rhys Stanley ($10,810): Stanley got the job done R1 against Grundy, outscoring him by a point. That is highly unlikely to happen here but the 5k savings means he only needs to stay with Grundy and not let him get out past 40-50pts clear to be the value play.
AFL SCORING SYSTEM
Kick = 3 points
Mark = 3 points
Handball = 2 points
Goal = 6 points
Behind = 1 point
Tackle = 4 points
Free Kick For = 1 point
Free Kick Against = -3 points
Hitout = 1 point
AFL