AFL MAGPIES v CATS $40,000 CHEAT SHEET
Plenty of value on offer at the MCG as the Magpies host the Cats in what looks a DFS ripper!
After a nice solid cash in the season opener we turn our attentions to a Friday night fantasy blockbuster that promises to be a vastly higher scoring contest which forces us to prioritise ceilings rather than floors.
Without hyperbole, the winning lineup could be four figures tonight, moving that minimum cash line, which was just 726pts last night, rapidly north to probably the mid 800’s.
Dangerfield, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Duncan, Grundy, Crisp, there are just so many fantasy studs in the game that can really junk up on the stat sheet and we haven’t even got to all the value, of which there is plenty.
With the possibility of a little bit of precipitation, be prepared to scrap your well-laid plans and take the tacklers late, but if the skies stay clear the key to cash in this contest will centre around nailing your studs and eating plenty of chalk.
PLAY NOW
Here is my team you can consider using, or building around, for CONTEST
FORWARD
Josh Thomas (COLL – $9,800)
We are looking for value at either end of the ground tonight so we can fit in a few midfield guns (and Grundy) and we start with Thomas who looked sensational in the JLT (95 and 101pts respectively). Expect he will spend decent minutes in the midfield tonight as the Pies rest their older on-ballers like Beams up forward and just sub their runners. Thomas averaged 72pts from 26 games in 2018 so even an average game from JT gets us 7x value. Capable of better though.
Brandan Parfitt (GEEL – $9,800)
Speaking of capable of better, Parfitt had an amazing JLT1(92pts) but failed to repeat in JLT2. He does look poised to take vast majority of Ablett’s midfeild minutes though and Geelong look like they want assistant coach Selwood on that boundary side wing which opens even more onball minutes up for Parfitt. Has an 11-12x value ceiling at this price point, but we will take a workman-like 80-85 every day with this build. Likely to be mega chalk.
MIDFIELD
Patrick Dangerfield (GEEL – $15,740)
If you liked him last year, you’ll love him this season because GAJ is out of the midfield and playing semi-permanent forward. Danger may rest up there but he won’t burn midfield minutes languishing in the forward 50 so his fantasy output can be expected to return to 2016/7 levels. Supremely condifent he clears 130pts here and can return 10x without much effort. 40 disposal, 10 tackle, 2 goal game is there for him.
Mitch Duncan (GEEL – $14,420)
The other man who is likely to benefit most from Ablett Jnr’s departure from the midfield is Duncan, who can combine those cheap defensive stats with much more midfield exposure this season. Won’t pay off his price tag, or at least very unlikley, but with Beams joining that Magpies midfield mix we want to have a look who is getting what on the Collingwood side before committing too many chips.
Chris Mayne (COLL – $11,270)
The POD play of our side, Mayne has 10x upside and will likely be sub 15% owned which is a combination I love looking for (tip of the cap to Jack Graham last night!). This team may live or die on Mayne’s work rate and him sticking his tackles. An 86pt effort in JLT2 shows there is a pretty safe floor with Mayne’s new wing role.
Tom Atkins (GEEL – $5,000)
Unless i am overestimating the AFL DFS community, Atkins is likely to be 65-70% owned tonight. I would normally try and find ways of pivoting from that monster ownership but I just can’t. He will spend most of his time as a pressure forward with a few midfield stints, but the guy has been ranked in the top two tacklers in the VFL the last two seasons and has averaged 22 disposals as well. At 5k, it’s a no-brainer. Even if he bombs with a 6 disposal, 6 tackle game, thats still 10x value! Brave coach to fade that safety/value.
DEFENDERS
Tom Stewart (GEEL – $10,920)
Averaged 79pts last season (up from 60 in 2017) and gets an additional bump first-up here with the kick-in rule as Geelong’s primary kicker-inerer (absolutely a word). Raised the bat on five occasions in 2018, including a 110pt effort against the Pies. Can repeat.
Darcy Moore (COLL – $5,860)
A solid JLT campaign from Moore and a near rookie price tag will result in heavy ownership. Scored 64 and 69 in his two pre-season matches and can repeat those numbers here if, and this is the big if, IF he stays on the park. Moore and Atkins get us to Grundy without busting the rest of our team so with this build, we are hoping for a fit Moore to peel off plenty of intercept marks and see the game out.
RUCK
Brodie Grundy (COLL – $17,080)
At first glance many players may see three Collingwood ruck options, expect the ruck to be shared for the Magpies and select Stanley. The more experienced dfs-ers will know that Grundy is a fantasy machine who is capable of beating Stanley by 70pts here. Love that there are four ruck options though because that should thin Grundy’s ownership to sub 30% at this price.
THE LINE-UP
FWD: Josh Thomas ($9,800)
FWD: Brandan Parfitt ($9,800)
MID: Patrick Dangerfield ($15,740)
MID: Mitch Duncan ($14,420)
MID: Chris Mayne ($11,270)
MID: Tom Atkins ($5,000)
DEF: Tom Stewart ($10,920)
DEF: Darcy Moore ($5,860)
RK: Brodie Grundy ($17,080)
AFL SCORING SYSTEM
Kick = 3 points
Mark = 3 points
Handball = 2 points
Goal = 6 points
Behind = 1 point
Tackle = 4 points
Free Kick For = 1 point
Free Kick Against = -3 points
Hitout = 1 point
AFL