BBL08 CONTEST PREVIEW GAME 15 & 16: NEW YEARS DAY DOUBLE HEADER
“Plenty of value plays today – no Handscomb and no Ludeman make it very interesting for some top guys to get good run at the top of the order.”
The Re-cap
A nice consistent team effort helped us to cash last night with Ingram and Ferguson finally coming good with some runs. Weatherald and Sangha both going cheaply stopped it from being a really big night but the team was built around consistency and low-ownerships and that’s what we got. A cash is a cash. Time to get back in the black to start the new year!
Likely XI’s
Game 15 @ Metricon Stadium
Heat – McCullum, Bryant, Lynn, Burns, Cutting, Ross, Pierson, Pattinson, Mujeeb, Swepson, Lalor, (Doggett, Heazlett)
- Assuming his social calendar is clear Pattinson comes straight back in this afternoon. Expect Ross to go into that middle order for Heazlett who has struggled. With Ross there the Heat can send Cutting north to 4 or 5 depending on the game and still have Burns/Ross/Pierson to steady the ship if needed. Frightening top 7.
Sixers – Denly, Edwards, Hughes, Henriques, Silk, Phillipe, Curran, Abbott, O’Keefe, Dwarsius, Manenti (West, Avendano)
- This is without doubt the worst team in the comp. Possible that Phillipe opens with Edwards batting #4. With Pattinson back and a tricky two-paced Gold Coast wicket expect to see the Sixers middle-lower order see plenty of overs. If they bowl first this game could be over by 9:30pm.
Game 16 @ MCG
Stars – Dunk, Stoinis, Larkin, Maxwell, Bravo, Gotch, Merlo, Gulbis, Zampa, Coleman, Lamichane, Bird, (Beer, Boland)
- Handscomb misses which makes Stoinis a very likely opener. Spot could go to Gotch though and if they bat 2nd it could even be Maxwell who comes out to open. Expect Gotch to play to sure up their batting. Would not be surprised to see young Merlo play as well, no reason not to give him a go as they just don’t need Beer given Maxwell is the comp’s best 3rd string spinner. Boland/Bird fighting for that second ‘quick’ spot.
Renegades –Harvey, Harper, White, Cooper, Nabi, Christian, Wildermuth, Boyce, Richardson, Usman Khan, Holland (Fekete, Webster)
- Holland/Webster are fighting for a bowling spot. Holland the better bowler, Webster can bat abit so who knows which way they go. My guess is Holland plays because if he starts going for runs the Gades have all-rounders to cover him. Ludeman out makes room for Harper to return to open. Wildermuth has also opened and don’t be surprised to see Nabi come in and take guard to open the innings.
Selection Committee
The pitch at Metricon will be very interesting as the Gold Coast have had a week of scorching sunny days. I’m expecting runs in the Heat side regardless, their top seven are just too powerful and they bat so deep they will just keep going and going. Sixers in all sorts, that game screams 5/2 Heat stack especially if Heat bat first.
My Team: Lynn, McCollum, Bryant, Henriques, Cutting/Phillipe, Pattinson, Mujeeb, Henriques (Like Cutting to be elevated to #4 this afternoon, but also like the spot Phillipe is in – the kid could very well open too at really low ownership.
The late game is the focus though with $15,000 up for grabs in the Melbourne derby at the MCG. Plenty of value plays too. No Handscomb and no Ludeman make it very interesting for some top guys to get good run at the top of the order. The pitch was a road for the Test and both teams have gone spin-heavy which indicates they don’t think much has changed. I’m taking as many batsman as I can tonight and hoping for a runs-fest.
Selection
Cam White ($14,000): The big bear is absolutely due for a monster game and he will get every chance to perform at #3 against a Stars bowling attack that is just not great. Plays the spinners well and is one of the rare players who can knock it around with touch or go big. He can finesse and bash. In front of 80,000 I just don’t think he will throw it away tonight.
Nick Larkin ($11,000): Looks to have cemented that #3 at the Stars and again, in a game where we have identified that runs will come, having both first drops is a solid strategy (Ingram/Fergy last night for example). Likely to be underowned given the minimum price tags tonight, think most of the field will be able to spend up past Larkin and so because they can they will.
Mackenzie Harvey ($9,500): Great debut. Gun fielder as well which is what I really like. Love the top order batsman who field in the hot spots. Can usually lock in 10-20pts of fielding which turns a failed score with the bat into a nice 40-50pt night. Slight concern about the rookie in front of a full MCG second up but I loved his debut. Hopefully he follows up better than Sangha did!
Sam Harper ($11,700): Hoping for some recency bias to give me a nice sub 15% ownership on Harper tonight. Mid-range price tag also might help that. Two solid 40+ games from Harper before he was dropped from opening and sent to the lower order where he got a duck. Looked super solid at the top in his first two games. Expect he bats higher tonight again (will be he or Nabi for mine) and the Stars bowlers are not great, harper can be a great POD tonight.
Glen Maxwell ($18,700): Finally Maxy is bowling himself and with him batting top 4 he just becomes a must-play. Would absolutely love to see him dominate the MCG infront of 80,000+. Watch for Beer being named, if he is named then Maxwell wont bowl as much if at all.
Mohammad Nabi ($20,500): I have a sneaking suspicion we could see Nabi elevated up the order tonight for some flashy hitting in the power play. But even if he doesn’t, he will bowl 2-4 overs and bat top 5 so if you can afford the price, he goes in.
Marcus Stoinis ($14,000): With Handscomb not playing and no Dean as well, there is a spot at the top for Stoinis to open the batting. Has done it before and I suspect they will want him to bat some time tonight before unleashing. Price has plummeted too on the back of a very underwhelming 14.2pt three-game fantasy average. We have seen already this season that the field will take the form over the class so someone like Stoinis (again, like Ingram and Fergy last night) can come good at a cheap price at low ownership tonight.
Final Thought
We’ve got seven top five batsman and a sprinkling of overs with the ball in a game where we are expecting the willow to dominate. If we have a 350-run game tonight this team will cash and cash well.
BBL08 Balance
Games: 14
Spend: $210
Win: $182.44
Profit: -$27.56