BBL08 CONTEST PREVIEW GAME 7: XMAS EVE DOUBLE HEADER
We’ve got a huge BBL Xmas Eve Double Header with $8,000 in the first game and $15,000 in the late game so let’s get stuck in.
The Re-cap
Another top 20 finish despite Dan Christian going nuts late and Jack Wildermuth sliding down the order and globing. Tough caper this Big Bash when even the official team sheets are completely misleading, but advantageous patterns emerge.
Stupidly low ownerships from Wells (9%), White (23%) and even Nabi (40%) means that you can rely on plenty of recency bias at selection. In a game where literally anything can and usually does happen (or not happen), it is well worth picking that sub-15% owned player and hoping he gets the chance to rocket you up the leaderboard.
We’ve got a big Xmas Eve Double Header with $8,000 in the first game and $15,000 in the late game so let’s get into it.
HOBART HURRICANES V MELBOURNE STARS
Likely XI’s
Hurricanes – Short, Wade, Doolan, McDermott, Bailey, Faulkner, Milenko, Botha, Archer, Rose, Meredith (Moody, Doran)
- No need to change a winning lineup. Doolan/Wade may switch around to open the innings, Doolan could also slide if the openers both start really well.
Stars – Dunk, Stoinis, Dean, Maxwell, Bravo, Larkin, Gulbis, Zampa, Coleman, Bird, Lamichane, (Beer, Boland)
- Bird likely to slot straight in to this team at the expense of Michael Beer who really shouldn’t have played the first game. Zampa, Lamichane and Maxwell are all quality spinners and Beer is well and truly surplus to requirements.
Selection Committee
Very very hard to fade Short here but I have. Expect the field to be 60%+ on him so fading him just makes sense because taking him means you have 2-3 players you are not overly happy with. I’ll be taking a balanced lineup into this game and if Short fails it will be very hard not to cash.
Selection
Maxwell, Bravo, McDermott, Doolan, Rose, Archer, Lamichane – remaining salary $200
Final Thought
Taking the stock-standard middle order from both sides and hoping for early wickets which has been the trend in majority of games this season. Having both death bowlers in Bravo and Archer also appeals to me. Wish I could have got to Stoinis here who I expect will be very low-owned. Don’t be surprised to see plenty of recency bias against Maxwell/Bravo/Stoinis tonight after they failed first up.
SYDNEY THUNDER V SYDNEY SIXERS
Likely XI’s
Thunder –Watson, Buttler, Ferguson, Root, Sangha, Sams, Green, Rainbird, Sandhu, McAndrew Ahmed (Cook, Gilkes)
- Won’t change much. Ferguson could very well slide to #5 especially if they get off to a good start at the top so if you are taking Ferguson you’re banking on a very early wicket to fall.
Sixers – Denly, Edwards, Hughes, Henriques, Silk, Phillipe, Abbott, O’Keefe, Dwarsius, Curran, Pope (Avendano, Fallins)
- Pope should retain his spot given the turn expected at the Showgrounds. Henriques pinged a string first up so don’t be surprised to see Avendano come in for the skipper.
Selection Committee
Silk and Sangha will be big chalk and probably deservedly so given how they both played. Likewise O’Keefe should be highly owned despite bowling to a vastly superior top four here. I’m taking all three purely on price.
Selection
Jos Buttler ($17,000): Just 32pts in game 1 won’t inspire much confidence which I absolutely love because Buttler is the real T20 deal. Can take a game away in 6 overs and I’m backing him in to take the Sixers pacemen down here. Hoping he (semi) respects O’Keefe early but seems unlikely.
Joe Denly ($18,900): Was unlucky in his dismissal first up pulling a ball straight to Hughes. Hoping a chunk of the field jumps off him here. Think he absolutely destroys the Thunder opening bowlers.
Jordan Silk ($11,300): Did not hit a poor shot first up. If Henriques doesn’t play there is a good chance Silk bats #4. Will be highly owned but is too cheap for his likely exposure. If you are playing multiple sides, Edwards is one you could pivot too in this position.
Jason Sangha ($11,300): The Sausage absolutely sizzled on debut for the Thunder. I could not have been more impressed. If the top order get off to a start I can see this kid being elevated up the order past Root and Ferguson such is his class and potential. Again, will be chalky but I’m sticking with this kid every game.
Steve O’Keefe ($11,600): 115pts first up is probably pretty close to SOK’s ceiling. Will still have plenty of him though on what should be a good pitch for the spinners and in a game where the Sixers may be without their middle order rock in Henriques, if they collapse then SOK will get some very handy batting runs.
Chris Green ($15,100): Big POD play. Likely to be sub 15% owned. Should get his 3-4 overs and always fields in the hot zones so you can add 10-20pts from the field. I also like that he will bat #7 which could give him plenty of exposure if the Thunder top order fails – he and Sangha could both bat plenty of time.
Fawad Ahmed ($14,000): If you ‘always take your SOK’s to the SCG’ then Rule #2 is ‘Ahmed is Spotless’. Always takes wickets and bowls well here. In a game where I expect Sams, SOK and Abbott to be very heavily owned, Ahmed could sneak under the radar here big time and can very easily finish 3/20 off 4.
Final Thought
Two superstar opening batsman, some middle order rebuild safety exposure and 12 overs of spin is a solid formula for cashing at Spotless.
BBL08 Balance
Games: 6
Spend: $90
Win: $114
Profit: +$24