BBL08 GAMES 20 & 21: STARS V THUNDER & SCORCHERS V HEAT
Both teams have very powerful batting lineups but we saw what happened last start at Optus to the Strikers top order, the Scorchers destroyed them.
The Re-cap
Another solid cash despite just 19pts (combined!) from our three bowlers. That Canes stack team was not far away from going very deep has the sixers collapsed a little more than they did. Economy points for Meredith, Archer, Faulkner and Rose would have had that team right up at the point end. But still, four from last five cashes, we are starting to figure this caper out.
Likely XI’s
Game 20 Stars v Thunder @ Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast – $10,000 GPP Contest
Stars – Dunk, Stoinis, Larkin, Maxwell, Gotch, Bravo, Gulbis, Plunkett, Zampa, Boland, Bowe (Beer, Bird)
- Merlo and Lamichane out with Plunkett and Bowe the likely inclusions. Bird could come in for Boland, but Beer looks to be use in case of emergency status. Stars are severely lacking in batting depth here. Almost five-out-all-out stuff. Plunkett to get his 4 (right arm fast) with Bravo (4), Zampa (4) means there are 8 overs for Stoinis/Maxy, Bowe, Boland combined. Bowe can land them. Don’t sleep if he plays.
Thunder – Watson, Buttler, Ferguson, Root, Sangha, Sams, Green, Sandhu, Cook, Rainbird, Ahmed (Lenton McAndrew)
- Lenton into the 13 for Nair. Expect the Thunder will be unchanged though.
Game 21 Scorchers v Heat @ Optus Oval, Perth – $10,000 GPP Contest
Scorchers –Klinger, Bancroft, Marsh, Turner, Cartwright, Agar, Willey, Coulter-Nile, Tye, Richardson, Behrendorff (Bosisto, Kelly)
- Kelly and Marsh into the squad, Marsh slots straight into the top 4. Bancroft can open and they may open him for some confidence here at home, but Willey is always a chance to be elevated to open. Frighting side at home. Heat in all sorts here.
Heat – Renshaw, Bryant, Lynn, McCullum, Burns, Cutting, Pierson, Pattinson, Mujeeb, Swepson, Doggett (Lalor, Ross)
- Renshaw into the squad for Heazlett and expect he comes straight in to withstand what will likely be a very firey Scorchers opening pair of Dorph and NCN. Think they play Doggett here on a pitch that will suit him. Swepson is in real danger of missing out as well, Renshaw and Burns can both bowl a few overs if they think that Ross is needed to further bolster their batting lineup.
Selection Committee
English pacemen don’t have a great track record coming out here to the BBL so I’m not placing too much faith in Plunkett to do much of anything. Especially not against that thunder top 6. Lamichane a huge loss for the Stars, but Bowe can be a tricky customer and if he lands his first over he will get a good look at 4 overs here. I don’t see a hell of a lot of economy coming out of this game, so I’m taking 6 batsman and cheering on the top order runs. I’ve faded Root but pairing him with a Stars opening bowler like Plunkett or Boland is a solid POD play. I just don’t see the Thunder openers not killing it here. Gotch/Gulbis are a good POD punt tonight especially if you take them with a few Thunder opening bowlers. Hopefully Bowey plays and finishes with a few wickets but it’s all on runs here on what is forecast to be a belter of a day on the Goldy.
Team: Maxwell, Buttler, Ferguson, Gotch, Stoinis, Watson, Bowe
The late game is a massive headache at selection. Both teams have very powerful batting lineups but we saw what happened last start at Optus to the Strikers top order. Very difficult not to take Scorchers bowlers against what looks like a Bryant/Renshaw opening pair for the Heat.
Selection
Mitch Marsh ($18,000): Expect the field will go to Lynn here so pivoting to Marsh should be a good POD play. Should bat #3 or #4 and will absolutely destroy this Brisbane attack if he can see off Mujeeb.
Joe Burns ($12,900): We have stuck with class all season and tonight it’s Burnsy’s turn. The bowlers we’ve taken mean that Burns will get plenty of time at the crease and should be very under-owned.
Michael Klinger ($9,700): Criminally underpriced. Loves playing at home and again, the class is there. May not have too many to get either so should respect Pattinson early. If he can survive Mujeeb he should carry his bat tonight.
Ben Cutting ($13,600): I just don’t see Cuts being highly owned tonight batting at #6 and bowling four overs of poop, he is a hard sell. But with Dorph and NCN in our team we have to look for the list to that middle-lower order to play that rebuilding innings.
Nathan Coulter-Nile ($15,500): This is a horses for courses selection. Loved his four over spell here last start against a quality Strikers top order. If you have picked Dorph (which we have) than pairing him with NCN makes sense because if Behrendorph fires they will have to try and hit Coulter-Nile.
Jason Behrendorph ($17,700): A lot of cash to splash for a bowler but I just can’t pass him bowling to Bryant and Renshaw at Optus. Getting Lynn in early (and hopefully out early) is the major building block of this team build. Need a repeat of that 98pts last start here against Adelaide for this team to be a chance.
Mujeeb Ur Rahman ($13,200): Sixers got hold of him in one over and ruined his economy but he should have had two wickets in that spell. Like him to get a power play over against Willey or Cancroft and knock them over. Should be very under-owned on a pace-friendly Perth pitch.
Remaining Salary $0
Final Thought
This is a very specific team build and now that I look at it, plenty has to go right for it to cash. Don’t sleep on Pattinson tonight, and Pierson is a great inclusion for any Scorchers bowler stack. If you want to go really against the field, a Renshaw or Bryant with Lynn / Pattinson and some Turner/Cartwright would be very left-field. Going to be very interesting to see Lynn’s ownership tonight. I’m expecting it to be around the 55% mark which at that point I am more than happy to come under the field.
BBL08 Balance
Games: 19
Spend: $285
Win: $316.10
Profit: +$31.10