BBL08 GAME 33: HEAT V THUNDER
This game looks like a runs-fest so mix up your batsman and avoid chasing too much economy bonuses as bowlers could all go the distance tonight.
The Re-cap
Nowhere near it last night thanks to a woeful batting display by the Sixers on their home deck against a sub-par Renegades side. Putrid. Not much a coach can do when the game script does not play out anything near like expected.
Likely XI’s
Game 33: Heat v Thunder @ Gabba
Heat – McCullum, Bryant, Lynn, Cutting, Alex Ross, Pierson, Prestwidge, Swepson, Lalor, Doggett, Mujeeb (Heazlett, Steketee)
- Burns, Renshaw and Labuschagne all out (Test selection). In comes Steketee, Heazlett and Prestwidge, the latter I expect will get the nod tonight with Ross likely to bat #5 behind Cutting as an innings-saver. Prestwidge is a young all-rounder who can bowl 1-2 overs and cover them a little with the bat, just balances their side much better than Steketee or Heazlett tonight.
Thunder – Watson, Devcich, Ferguson, Lenton, Nair, Sams, Gibson, Green, Jordan, Sandhu, Ahmed (Cook, McAndrew)
- Gibson comes in for Sangha. Thunder could go a few ways here but I expect them to play a long middle-lower order. Devcich and Nair in the side make Cook surplus to spin requirements again. Green batting #8 and still the Thunder have 7 bowling options not including Watson. Nair/Sams/Gibson will slide up or down depending on game situation.
Selection Committee
This game will be a runs-fest but picking which batsman go nuts is trickier than you may think tonight. With so many under-priced players getting to Chris Lynn is not difficult and with so much spin in the Thunder bowling attack it is really hard to not take Lynn. In fact I have taken seven batsman tonight in the hope that we see a good ol’ fashioned 360+ runs and plenty of huge sixes. Ended on McCullum/Lenton but if you are taking a second team a Devcich/Bryant combo is a solid play as well for batsman stacks.
Selection
Chris Lynn ($23,100): Hasn’t gone ballistic at hoe yet, averaging just over 35pts at the Gabba from two games. Gets his chance here against plenty of Thunder spin. The field will be pretty heavy on Lynn tonight, expect around that 65% mark so fading him is a solid option just make sure you have the next two guys from the heat (say Ross/Cutting) if you fade Lynn.
Brendan McCullum ($17,900): Has found form averaging just under 90pts last three games. BJ is in a great zone where he is not rushing the start of his innings, knowing he can catch up very quickly and Bryant is really helping to take the pressure off him. Can’t leave him out on what should be a very dry, very batting-friendly Gabba deck.
Callum Ferguson ($10,300): With a 3-game average of less than 1pt (0.66fpts) thanks to two ducks in three games, Fergy may not be at the top of everyone’s wish list tonight but he is my first man picked. There is no bowlers here that will trouble him, plays spin well and his power game against the seamers has really stepped up recently. Great value play who should come in at around 30% ownership.
Jay Lenton ($9,500): A first-up 64pt effort has been missed by the salary cappers which makes Lenton a very appealing play tonight given he should bat #4. The lanky keeper is a solid pathway to Lynn and pairing him with Ferguson allows you to go hard at the Heat top order whilst still having great Thunder batting exposure. In a game where we are selecting for 350-360 total runs, Lenton only needs a 30-40pt return for value which he can get in 4-5 overs. Our eggs are in the power hitters basket tonight.
Shane Watson ($12,700): 122pt effort last-start, Shane Watson welcome back to fantasy relevance. With no Buttler Watto will have to score well again tonight and I can’t see who troubles him from the Heat. Expect that Devcich will go hard early which allows Watto to build like he did last game. If his spinners go for plenty he is always a chance to roll the arm over too.
Ben Cutting ($14,800): If our Heat stars fire (and we have selected that they will) then Cutting bats #4 tonight and gets that late-innings license to smash. If his eye is in and he gets a few away, you are looking at a solid return but if he comes in with a few more overs to go, say 7-8, he could easily crack the fantasy ton with bat alone. Will be very popular tonight, likely 50%+.
Arjun Nair ($10,900): Failed with the bat last start but a 3/12 off 4 overs landed him Player of the Match and 122 fantasy points. I have Nair down to bat #5 tonight and without Cook in the side his overs with the ball are more secure but my hopes for Nair are closer to 10-15 runs and a wicket for a 40-45pt game.
Final Thought
Mix up your batsman tonight. With both sides batting heavy and deep the team batting second is likely to have a lot of run-rate pressure from the start which could lead to early wickets so getting exposure to the lower order of the chasing team makes good sense. Ross will be a great POD tonight particularly if the Heat bat second, taking he and Pierson with a few Thunder bowlers is unique enough to take down a big tourney.
BBL08 Balance
Games: 32
Spend: $480
Win: $526.48
Profit: +$46.48